Did Apple bloggers REALLY predict the market?
Fortune is saying that amateurs beat the professionals in forecasting Apple revenue numbers.
Here’s what is confusing. Aren’t they just cherry picking the data? There are WAY more bloggers than just the 41 on this list.
Do these count? Were there no other bloggers that predicted Apple numbers?
Surely there must be at least hundreds of people predicting Apple’s Q1 2011 in the public and on blogs.
Also, like 5-6 of the bloggers on their list were from Apple Finance Board which is actually a public forum. There MUST be more predictions here.
I suspect that Fortune is simply throwing out predictions they either didn’t see or don’t match their prediction which is contributing to a significant selection bias.
In our ranking of the best and worst Apple (AAPL) analysts for Q1 2011, which lists them based on how accurately they predicted seven key numbers — revenue, earnings, gross margins and unit sales — the unaffiliated analysts (blue in the chart at right) took 9 out of the 10 top spots.